Global markets daily update

The establishment survey also reports on wage behavior by industry. The survey found that average hourly earnings in December were up 4. This increase is roughly consistent with underlying core inflation and suggests that, despite a tight labor market, wages are not accelerating. Nor are wage increases driving inflationary pressure. Yet wage gains varied by industry. For example, average hourly earnings in the leisure and hospitality sector were up In our own professional and business services industry the figure was 6.

In manufacturing the figure was 4. The separate survey of households says that there were , more people employed including the self-employed in December than in November. The survey found that the participation rate was roughly unchanged from November to December, but still far below the prepandemic level. The unemployment rate fell from 4. The number of people reporting being unemployed fell by , from November to December.

Although job growth was modest in December, it seems likely that the Federal Reserve will stick to its plan to reduce asset purchases and begin interest rate normalization in I suspect that, rather than focusing on job growth, the Fed is looking at the sharp decline in the unemployment rate, combined with recent data showing a high number of job vacancies.

That is, the Fed is likely concerned about the potential inflationary effect of a relatively tight labor market. Of course, keep in mind that, just two years ago, the yield was 2. By country, annual inflation was 5. The unusually high inflation rate in Germany is due, in part, to the reversal of the pandemic-related reduction in the value-added tax VAT. The increase in the VAT is a one-off event and the impact will gradually fade, thereby reducing inflationary pressure. On the other hand, recent price increases will likely factor in upcoming collective bargaining, thereby boosting wages and possibly contributing to a wage-price spiral.

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Ira Kalish United States. Email a customized link that shows your highlighted text. Copy a customized link that shows your highlighted text. Copy your highlighted text. Share by email. Weekly global economic update by Ira Kalish. Learn more View previous updates Visit the Deloitte Insights economics collection. In the United States, the seven-day average daily infection level increased from per million on December 22 to 1, per million on January 6. Hospitalizations have increased sharply as well, largely due to unvaccinated people getting infected.

Hospital admissions increased from 58, on December 22 to , on January 6. In addition, the number of children being hospitalized has soared.

Meanwhile, the high rate of infection and sickness has led many people to stay at home rather than work. The result has been a shortage of workers at hospitals, airlines and airports, and other venues. In New York, for example, several subway lines have been suspended. Many flights have been cancelled. Some cities face a shortage of public safety workers. Many businesses are cancelling in-person events.

And many schools are shifting, at least temporarily, to online learning. Going forward, many experts believe the infection rate will increase sharply in the first few weeks of January before receding.

The number of hospital admissions is likely to increase commensurately, creating a challenging situation given the shortage of health care workers. The problem is largely the high number of unvaccinated people. Moreover, the vaccine wears off over time, necessitating booster shots. Meanwhile, many vaccinated people are getting infected but not becoming ill. You will now receive notification when someone reply to this message.

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